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Tanba sa Timór-Leste tenki ba deve?

Informasaun baziku no analize husi La'o Hamutuk

4 Desembru 2009.  Atualiza 5 Marsu 2012

Link to this page in English.

Durante fulan hira ikus ne'e iha 2009, Governu Timór-Leste hahú asaun lejislativa, diplomatiku no finansial atu lori nasaun ne’e atu deve osan hosi governu no instituisaun husi rai li’ur, Imprestimus sei hahú iha tinan 2012, hanesan descrive iha pajina web ketak.

La’o Hamutuk fiar katak ida ne’e sei lori risku boot ba nasaun, liu-liu ba jerasaun futuru. Ami oferese ligasaun no analisa hirak ne'e atu ajuda asegura katak desizaun tenki foti ho informasaun ne’ebé kompletu.

Conteudu

Bele le'e atu hetan informasaun tan

Diario Nasional
28-29 Setembru 2011

Guteriano Neves: Deve no Problema sira ba Timor-Leste

Programa Radio Igualidade

30 Maiu 2010

Timor-Leste atu Deve?
Entrevista ho Juvinal Dias (LH), Carlos Florindo (Movimentu Kontra Deve) no Martinho (Forum Lideransa Komunitaria)

Presentasaun sira husi enkontru publiku La'o Hamutuk nian

15 Abril 2010

Kristin Sundell: Should Timor-Leste Go Into Debt? Lessons from Oil-Export Dependent Countries

Francisco Vasconcelos, KKFP: Tansa Timor-Leste Tengki Deve?

Juvinal Dias, La'o Hamutuk: Deve sei hadalan lalais Timor-Leste ba “Malisan Rekursu”

Karta La'o Hamutuk nian iha Timor Post, 8 Abril 2010

Tanba Sa Timor-Leste Tenke Deve?

Artigu Guteriano Nicolau nian iha Timor Post, 4 Des. 2009:

Terjerumusnya Negara-Negara Berkembang ke dalam Utang Luar Negeri
Newly developed countries fall into borrowing from overseas

Artigu La'o Hamutuk nian iha Timor Post, 26 Nov. 2009:
Timór-Leste atu Deve: Lojika ka La’e?
Timor Leste to Borrow: Logical or not?

Observasaun

Povo iha nasaun ladauk dezenvolvido barak hatene ona husi sira nia laran-tauk no terus katak, governu hirak ne’ebé uluk ukun, asina kontratu atu uza fundu Públiku nian hodi lori selu tusan. Wainhira estadu labele fó asistensia sosiais ba sidadaun sira, iha tempu hanesan, osan semo sai husi sira nia nasaun ba governu iha nasaun seluk nian ka instituisaun finanseiru internasonal. Tusan, dala barak fó benefisiu ba ema riku sira deit ka kompania husi nasaun seluk, no falha atu suporta povo, ka atu dezenvolve ekonomia nasaun nian. Maski tusan ho ninia funan ne’ebe “concessional (katak nia tusan menus liu kompara ho valor iha merkadu), obrigasaun legal atu selu fali osan inan antes atu gasta ba nessesidade rai laran, dala barak hamukit ema tanba la iha saude, edukasaun no seguransa. Ida ne’e resulta “Crize Tusan” balu ne’ebé akontese durante dekade 1980s no 1990s. Maski tusan balu kansela, no mos refórma balu, maibé perigu basicu no injustisa ekonomia nian existe nafatin. Povo kiak sira nia jerasaun iha futuru oin mai mak sei iha obrigasaun atu selu fali osan hirak ne’e tan de’it benefisiu politiku no finanséru jerasaun agora nian ne’ebé mak halo desizaun.

Maski Timór-Leste iha sorte di’ak tanba hahú moris hanesan estadu soberanía ho laiha deve ba ema seluk, nasaun ida ne'e hetan encourajamentu atu deve iha tinan 2004 atu lori taka kuak entre rendimentu husi mina nian no nesesidade ba gasta publiku. Primeiru Ministru iha tempu ne’e reziste presaun hirak ne’e, no ikus mai “kuak” ida ne’e nunka mosu.

Ohin loron, Governu planu hela atu impresta osan hodi realiza governu nia mehi sira, hanesan estrada boot, airportu, no sentral eletrisidade. Maski projeitu boot hirak ne’ebé kompania husi rai li’ur mak sei harií ne’e bele halo ita nia na’i ulun sira orgulho, laiha koneksaun milagre entre hari projeitu boot sira ne’e ho haforsa ekonomia lokal Timór-Leste nian.

Nasaun ne’ebé dependente ba petróleum hanesan Timór-Leste, iha posibilidade boot atu deve wainhira estadu simu ona osan lahoo esforso maka’as ka planu ne’ebé di’ak.  Maibé sira kria mos perigu, wainhira rendimentu husi petróleu komesa tun, iha tempu hanesan, tusan komesa selu fali ona. Wainhira Timór-Leste nia rendimentu husi mina hotu iha tinan 15 nia laran, no Timór-Leste tenki selu fila fali tusan, ita nia oan no bei oan sira mak sei sofre husi konsekuensia hirak ne’e.

Reportajem ho titlu Drilling into Debt: An Investigation into the Relationship Between Debt and Oil (download executive summary or full report (1MB)) (Borus ba Tusan: Investigasaun ida iha Relasaun Entre Tusan no Mina), publika husi organizasaun Oil Change International iha tinan 2005, diskuti kona ba oinsa risku no konsekuensia hirak ne’e afeita ba nasaun seluk. Timór-Leste tenki aprende husi esperiensia la di’ak hirak ne’e.
 

Lei N.o 13 /2009 kona ba Orsamento e Jestaun Finanseira (Port. ka English)

Artigu 20 º.
Garantia no imprestimu husi Estadu

1. Iha reseita no despeza públiku kada tinan ne’ebé estimatiza ona atu hatama ba Parlamentu, governu tenke fosai montante hira mak atu hetan husi imprestimu no subsidiu públiku durante iha tinan fiskál ida hodi selu ba estadu ninia despeza.

2. Governu bele de’it fosai sertifikadu deve kuandu iha simu tiha ona montante hira ka sasan ne’ebé mak rekere husi imprestimu ne’e.

3. Ministru Finansa mak autoridade uniku ne’ebé fó ka halo imprestimu hodi Estadu ninia naran, no:

a. Reprezenta Governu ba iha halo akordu imprestimu hotu;

b. Mantein dokumentu no rezistu orijinal hotu kona-bá akordu imprestimu, inkluindu garantia no obrigasaun kontijensia

4. Reseita hotu ne’ebé mak hetan tuir artigu ne’e tenke transfere ba Timór-Leste ninia Fundu Konsolidu ida ne’ebé kria atu finansia despeza estadu tuir Lei Orsamentu Estadu haruka.

5. Ministru Finansa bele fosai garantia ida ne’ebé limita Governu, lahoo tan ona autorizasaun ba daruak, hodi nune’e montante iha kestaun la a’as liu dotasaun orsamentál ne’ebé la-gasta ba Ministériu Finansa no iha kazu espesifika ona kuandu devidamente autoriza husi lei.

6. Governu bele de’it limitidu iha relasaun ba garantia, insuransia ka instrumentu finanseiru hanesan ba iha parágrafu 8 artigu ne’e.

7. Governu ninia despeza ne’ebé mai husi kumprimentu ho garantia no insuransia sei konsidera hanesan despeza servisu dívida.

8. Iha reseita no despeza públiku kada tinan ne’ebé estimatiza ona hatama ba Parlamentu, governu tenke fosai montante nesesaria ne’ebé bele atinje kustu operasaun imprestimu hotu tuir lei átual, ne’ebé liu husi tau kapitál ka selu juru ka taxa devida seluk-seluk iha relasaun ba imprestimu durante tinan finasiál to’o ida ne’ebé mak estimatiza ona.

9. Amortizasaun impréstimu no juru, nomós montante seluk-seluk ne’ebé atu selu, desde sira la preokupa ba garantia no indemnizasaun ne’e selu husi fundu públiku lahoo dotasaun seluk-seluk tan.

Lei Orsamentu no Jestaun Finanséru

Iha loron 21 fulan Outubru 2009, Timór-Leste publika Lei Orsamentu no Management Finanséru (Port. or English). Lei No.13/2009 ne’e troka regulamentu UNTAET No.2001/13 ne’ebé defini ona prosesu orsamentu durante tinan walu ikus mai neé. Regulasaun UNTAET la autoriza Timór-Leste atu deve, tanba UNTAET lakohi atu husik hela responsabilidade ba estadu independente iha futuru mai ho tusan husi administrasaun transitorio nian. Maibé, iha lei foun, artigu 20 descreve kona ba oinsa estadu bele deve, no artigu 21 kria prosesu para oinsa atu fo imprestimu ba povo ka negosiante sira.

Wainhira proposta lei ne’e sei debate hela iha Parlementu, La’o Hamutuk no ONG seluk sujere atu hadi’a lei ne’e. Relasiona ho deve, maski maioria ami nia sugestasaun la inklui iha lei ne’e; ONG sira hato’o rekomendasaun hirak tuir mai ne’e:

  1. Razaun fundamental hosi Governu hodi halo imprestimo. Atualmente Timor-Leste iha rendimentu Minarai nian besik Biliaun US$5. Ami suzere atu Governu presiza halo esplikasaun ba razaun fundamental atu halo imprestimo tamba iha lei neé iha deit mak oinsa atu hetan imprestimo no no oinsa atu jere deve neé ba orsamento jeral estadu nian. Ho razaun katak situasaun Timor-Leste nian agora seidauk nesesariu ba Timor-Leste atu halo qualquer imprestimos ba instituisaun Finanseiru internasional ka nasaun ruma. Ami mos rekomenda ba Parlamentu Nasional ne'ebe iha direitu no knar fiskalizasaun no monitorizasaun nian atu tenke diskuti, hatene no ratifika akordu ba deve entre Governu ho instituisaun finanseiru ka nasaun ruma, kondisaun atu deve no selu tusan nian, limitasaun ba montante atu deve, kapasidade ba selu tusan no sa konsekuensia mak Timor-Leste sei hetan wainhira Timor-Leste la selu.

  2. Kapasidade atu selu fila fali tusan, no fonte rendimentu hodi selu tusan nian. Nasaun barak hosi nasaun terseiru mundu nian mak monu ba krize finansial nian, tamba deit laiha kapasidade atu selu tusan, tamba osan imprestimo nian nebe’e sira hetan la utiliza atu dezenvolve ba seitor dezenvolvimentu ne’ebe sustentavel no bele fo fila retornu. Parlamentu Nasional bele ezije atu Governu tenke hatudu nia jestaun atu selu tusan ida ne’e hodi nune la bele fo todan ba jerasaun futuru. Governu mos tenke hatudu resultadu ezekusaun Orsamentu Estadu nian durante ne’e investe hela iha seitor dezenvolvimentu nebe’e sustentavel no iha retornu nebe’e diak, kondisaun ba utilizasaun osan no indikador real ba implementasaun programa dezenvolvimentu nian atu nune labele lori Timor-Leste monu ba iha malisan rekursu no ho tusan naruk nia laran.

  3. Fundu minarai la bele sai garantia ba deve. Lei ne'e la temin kona ba rekursu ne'ebe mak atu uza ba hodi selu tusan. Iha Artigo 20 Lei Fundu Petroleu nian mensiona katak la bele uza rendementu petrolifeiru sai siguransa ba deve. Ho lei ida ne’e ( Lei Orçamentu e Gestão Financeira) karik uza Fundu Petroleu nian atu sai garantia ba deve, sei hafraku lei fundu petroliu rasik. Lei ida ne’e mos la fo intensaun diak ba transparansia no konsultasaun publiku. Ami suzere atu iha lei ida neé bele tuir Lei Fundu Petrolum ne'ebe estabelese ona hodi nune’e bele haforsa liu transparansia no akuntabilidade ba utilizasaun rendimentu petroleum nian tamba wainhira lei orsamentu no gestaun finanseiru nian la tuir Lei Fundu Petroleu nian sei hamosu konfuzaun legal ba Timor-Leste, aumenta instabilidade instituisional no loke dalan ba polemiku politiku no kazu ba Tribunal.

  4. Artigo 20 (Imprestimos), Ami rekomenda ba Parlamentu atu uza nia kompetensia katak atu Parlamentu tenke iha direitu hodi hatene no aprova akordu ba deve nian, kondisaun atu ba deve no oinsa atu selu , orariu atu selu ka estimatizasaun ba selu tusan nian. Ami suzere atu Parlamentu Nasional bele elimina artigo ida ne’e, ho razaun Timor-Leste sei iha fontes rendimento ne'ebe sufisiente ba finansiamentu estado nian.

Wainhira proposta Lei Orsamentu no Jestaun Finanséru sei diskuti hela, Banku Mundial prepara komparasaun ida entre lei ne’e ho regulasaun UNTAET (Ingles). Wainhira lei ne’e besik atu aplika ona, FMI hakerek sumario ida (Ingles) kona ba parte importante husi lei ne’e. Laiha ida husi dokumentu rua ne’e mak sirkula ba publiku; La’o Hamutuk fahe dokumentu rua ne’e atu ajuda povo hod bele komprende implikasaun husi regulasaun foun ne’e.

Lei No.° 9/2005 kona-bá Fundu Petróleu (Eng. ka Port.)

Artigu 20
Laiha sobrekarga ba Átivu Fundu Petróleu

20.1 Montante ruma ne’ebé mak investe [iha Fundu Petróleu] bele, ba tempu tomak, sai-nafatin Timor-Leste ninia properiadade.

20.2 Kontratu ruma, akordu to’o iha ne’ebé nia sentidu atu sobrekarega átivu Fundu Petróleu, ne’ebé liu husi dalan garantia, seguru, imprestimu ka forma sobrekarga seluk-seluk, ne’e nulu no la vale.

Selu fali tusan husi rendimentu petróleu

Artigu 20 Lei Fundu Petróleu (Port. ka English) hateten katak Fundu Petróleu labele uza nudar garantia ba deve. Tanba rendimentu hotu husi Petróleu iha Timór-Leste tenki depositu iha Fundu Petróleu, ema balu interpreta ne’e lori signifika katak labele usa osan husi rendimentu Petróleu nian atu lori selu tusan.

Maibé ida ne’e la los. Wainhira osan transfere ona husi Fundu Petróleu ba Tesoreiru, osan ne’e bele usa ba saida deit, inklui Orsamentu Jeral Estadu. Wainhira 98% ba rendimentu estadu Timór-Leste nian mai husi Petróleu, no wainhira selu fila fali tusan sai hanesan reklamasaun primeiru iha orsamentu nia laran, ida ne’e la hases katak osan ne’ebé transfere husi Fundu Petróleu sei usa atu selu fali tusan. Atu hateten iha maneira seluk, se mak sei espera Timór-Leste atu bele selu fila fali biliaun $3, wainhira ita laiha rekursu minarai ruma?

La'o Hamutuk nia submisaun iha Marsu 2005 (Eng. ka Port.)
Kona-bá Esbosu Lei Fundu Petróleu

Ami agradavél ba bandu hodi utiliza Fundu Petróleu hanesan paralelu ba impréstimu. Ami konkorda ho governu átual katak Timór-Leste la bele deve ho liman sorin, iha-oras-hanesan rai-osan ho liman ida seluk, maibé ami preokupa katak [lei ne’e] la bele fó protesaun adekuadu.

Karik Governu foun iha aban-bain-rua deside atu halo imprestimu, entaun kreditór expekta juru no osan inan atu selu fali husi orsamentu. Desde Fundu ne’e automatikamente selu ba orsamentál ninia deviza, ida ne’e iha impaktu garantia imprestimu, hanesan paralelu lahoo difikuldade. Tantu lisaun di’ak liu mak atu lalika halo deve, tan ne’e Fundu tenke hatuur hodi la fasilita deve. Osan Fundu tenke prohibiu husi uza atu selu ba servisu imprestimu.Nune’e mós Estimatizasaun Rendementu Sustentavél bele hamenus maka’as husi uza osan fundu hodi selu ba servisu imprestimu anuál, no rikeza Petróleu kalkula sei hamenus maka’as husi deve ne’e.

Wainhira Lei Fundu Petróleu (Ingles ka Portuguese) sei debate hela tinan lima liu ba, La’o Hamutuk fo sujestaun (Ingles ka Portugese) iha liman los. Maibé, ami nia ideias la tau ba konsiderasaun, no nasaun ne’ebé deit ka IFI konsidera atu fó imprestimu ba Timór-Leste hatene katak osan husi Fundu Petróleu sei bele selu tusan depois de transfere ba Conta Bankaria Estado nian. Wainhira Timór-Leste falha atu selu fali tusan, no kreditor (nasaun ka instituisaun ne’ebé fo tusan) labele foti osan direitamentu husi Fundu Petróleu, mos Governu Timór-Leste, kreditor sira sei bele foti osan ne’ebé deit mak transfere ona ba Tesoreiru.

Ministériu Finansa planu hela ato halo revizaun ba Lei Fundu Petróleu iha tinan 2010. Rasaun ida atu halo revisaun ne’e mak atu bele aumenta strategia investimentu nian ho risku boót liu, atu nune’e bele hasa’e tan investimentu Fundu Petróleu nia retornu ne’ebe boót. maibé wainhira lei ne’e loke ona ba revisaun, parte ne’ebé deit bele hetan mudansa. Se karik prosesu revisaun ne’e halo, ami espera katak Governu no Parlementu sei inklui sujestaun ne’ebé La’o Hamutuk hato’o iha tinan 2005. Maibé ami laran susar tanba Governu agora dadaun iha interese liu atu gasta osan lalais liu duke proteje interese povo Timór-Leste nian ba tempu naruk, no espera katak sira sei la hafraku liu tan protesaun limitadu lei ne’ebé Fundu Petróleu iha.

Proposed 2010 General State Budget (Eng. ka Port.)

Parte 6: Financiamentu

Overview

Timor-Leste is a post-conflict low income country where about 50% of the population lives below the poverty line. Literacy rates are below 50% and there is a high infant mortality rate and population growth is around 3.2% per annum. The work force continues to increase every year about 15,000 whilst jobs are limited both in public and especially in private sector.

Timor-Leste’s infrastructures are also in poor conditions. Roads are difficult to travel on, especially during the rainy season and limited maintenance has been carried out since 1999 when Indonesians left the country amid the destruction and economic contraction. Most of the irrigation facilities, especially in the southern coast still need.

These are a few examples of challenges that Timor-Leste is facing in its development process. The agenda is large and resources are limited. Pressure is building up to improve road conditions, housing primary school students in rural areas in appropriate buildings, and locating health facilities closer to the population. Even if prioritizing is done properly, the resources needed to undertake such development activities will still be extremely large both monetary terms as well as human resource needs.

To not address these issues, particularly those of core infrastructure and employment quickly and systematically risks social instability as well as the continuation of economic hardship for most of the Timorese people.

The key revenue of Timor-Leste is petroleum revenues, which come mainly from Bayu Undan in Timor Sea. The revenues are deposited in US Treasury Bills in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and every year the Government withdraws 3% of Estimated Sustainable Income (ESI) to finance the State Budget according to the Petroleum Fund Law. As a result of this prudent policy, by mid 2009, the Petroleum Fund had already reached above $5 billion dollars. Given the total petroleum wealth, it is estimated that ESI will be around half billion over the coming years. Adding the domestic revenues that may reach $100 million in the near future, resources available for sustaining state activities and developing the country is about $600 million every year.

With a country size of one million people, the above budget seems to be enough if it is managed properly based on the right priorities and spending efficiently. However, given the needs of development, and the extensive damage inflicted to core infrastructure (both human and physical) the investment levels associated with the current budget may not be enough to overcome the immediate needs of the nation. The Petroleum Fund Law allows the government to withdraw more than 3% every year. However, withdrawing significantly more than ESI could deplete the Petroleum Fund in few years such that it could put Timor-Leste into the path of unsustainability and risk the return of social violence and economic crisis.

Therefore, if Timor-Leste can tap into other resources to raise domestic revenues from non-petroleum sources then this could be a potential solution and this is an avenue that every responsible Government would need to at least explore - both in terms of providing the necessary investment and in addition, improving the enabling environment for private sector development in order to generate revenues in the future.

So far domestic revenues have been too small to cover any single major budget expenditure category. On the other hand, donor funds have been shrinking since 2002. After ten years of reconstruction and priorities in other parts of the world, Timor-Leste can no longer rely on development partners to finance its development activities like the first few years of reconstruction of the country.

Given these circumstances, Timor-Leste will have to examine the possibility to tap into other sources to finance development programs like borrowing. The Petroleum Fund Act does not allow the Government to borrow against money held in this fund, however, that does not mean that the Government cannot borrow at all.

The National Parliament recently passed a law on Budget and Financial Management that provides legal framework for Timor-Leste to borrow. Nevertheless, to enable the Government to borrow, the law requires that the Government produce a directive on borrowing.

Another challenge is the capacity of Timor-Leste to manage public debts. For this purpose, the Ministry of Finance is establishing a Debt Management Unit and seeking technical assistance to build the capacity of the unit to manage public debts.

[Liga iha ne'e atu hare quadro Sumariu Financiamento iha OJE 2010]

Sources of funds

The Government of Timor-Leste is pursuing discussions with a range of funds providers including Governments such as China and Portugal. However, since the amount is not known yet, borrowing is not included in the 2010 Budget submission to the National Parliament.

There are several loan options which the Government will explore, including but not limited to the following:

  • Commercial / Private Borrowing – these are loans offered by commercial entities such as Banks, this can happen through negotiation or though the issuing of bonds

  • Bilateral Loans – these are loans that are negotiated between two governments, one of whom gives the loan and the other being the recipient of the loan.

  • Multilateral Loans – are loans given by a group of countries, multilateral agencies or an international financial institution. The repayment terms and rates of interest are usually much lower than those offered commercially.

  • Concessional Loans – These are loans that are given at interest rates that are much lower than those offered by commercial financial institutions or some governments or international financial institutions which offer loans at the prevailing market rates. Concessional loans are normally given for specific purposes, but the terms of repayment are very generous. Typically rates of interest are in the region of 0.75%.

  • EXIM Bank – Export Import Bank of a country often offers loans for a specific project. These loans are often ‘tied loans’ and are usually given at commercial rates of interest. The repayment period is shorter than either multilateral loans or concessional loans and the borrowing Government is expected to procure goods and services from the country of origin of the EXIM Bank.

However, rates, terms and conditions can vary significantly for all of the categories listed above and this is why it is important to conduct careful analysis and consultations to understand exactly what is available to a country like Timor-Leste.

Nevertheless, the Government will seek approval of the National Parliament when an amount of borrowing at the appropriate time, however, for now the Government is seeking more information so that any presentation to Parliament is done so with the full range of documentation and information necessary.

At this stage it is envisaged that loans will be used to finance infrastructure projects which are national priorities. The value of these projects is likely to be around $3bn over the term of the project life, which will be several years.

Orsamentu Estadu 2010

Iha fulan Outubro 2009, Governu Timór-Leste aprezenta proposta Orsamentu Jeral do Estadu 2010 nian ba Parlementu atu aprova. Ida ne’e hanesan orsamentu primeiru ne’ebé mak atu aplika baseia ba Lei Orsamentu no Jestaun Finanséru foun, no ba dala uluk atu inklui kapitulu ida kona ba Finansiamentu, bele hetan iha sorin los.

Orsamentu ne’e seidauk inklui autorizasaun ba Timór-Leste atu deve, maibé indika katak Governu sei apresenta orsamentu recficativu tinan klaran nian atu halo revisaun ba orsamentu. Rektifikasaun ne’ebe propoin ba iha Maiu 2010 nia rohan la inklui imprestimus, maske ida ne’e bele aumenta gastus estadu nian ho tokon $177 durante tinan ida, no autoriza atu foti osan tokon $181 husi Fundu Petroleu.

Orsamentu Estadu 2010 reduz drastikamente dotasaun ba sentral no rede distribuisaun eletrisidade oleu pezadu nian, husi miliaun $375 to’o miliaun $73 durante projeitu tomak. Iha tempu hanesan, Primeiru Ministru halo ona "koreksaun" balu ba projeitu ne’ebé nia kustu sei aumenta maka’as. Iha posibilidade boot katak menus liu, milaun $500 ne’ebé proposta atu impresta husi Xina sei uza atu selu Kompania Konstrusaun Industri Nuclear Xinesa No.22 (CNI22), ba projeitu oleu pesadu ne’ebe mal planeadu desde inisiu.

Submisaun La’o Hamutuk nian kona ba Orsamentu 2010 esplika ami nia preokupasaun kona ba deve, inklui tuir mai ne’e:

Proposta Orsamentu Estadu 2010 la husu Parlamentu atu aprova Timor-Leste ba halo imprestimu, maibé ne’e implika katak aprovasaun hanesan ne’e iha ona garantia, nune’e “diretiva” ida de’it rekere molok governu bele impresta. Iha ona mós diskusaun kona-bá asinatura Momerandum Intendimentu ida ho Portugal ne’ebé bele “aranja no selu ba projétu infraestrutura ne’ebé konkorda tiha ona” atu “selu hikas iha tempu ikus-mai” maibé “sei la hola parte iha Orsamentu Jéral Estadu nian”. Paragrafu seluk hateten katak Governu sei “buka aprovasaun” husi Parlamentu wainhira deside osan hira mak atu impresta, ne’ebé ekspekta pelumenus tokon-rihun $3 durante projétu ne’e ba tinan hirak nian-laran.

Ida ne’e la lojika tebes atu halo imprestimu wainhira rendimentu petróleu sulin hela mai no atu selu de’it hafoin produsaun minarai hotu ona. Maske Artigu 9 Lei Orsamentu no Jestaun Finanséru fó konsiderasaun ba ekuidade ba jerasaun agora no ba futuru, imprestimu ne’ebé lei ne’e fo dalan, kontradikte hodi gasta arbiru riku soin ita nia oan sira nian atu selu ba atitude atuál loro-loron nian. Ida ne’e la habadak objetivu baziku ne’ebé sai fundamental ba Fundu Petróleu atu halo jestaun rendimentu ba rekursu la’os-renovavel ba benefísiu tempu naruk nian, duke gasta fundu ne’e arbiru de’it agora no tau-todan tusan ba ita nia be oan sira.

Kestaun importante mak la’os kona-b’a oinsa atu ba deve, maibé tamba sa mak atu deve:

  • Osan ne’e atu uza ba halo saida?
    Ida ne’e bele garante atu hasa’e kresimentu ekonómia no reseitas doméstiku natoon hodi selu fali impréstimu?

  • Osan ne’e atu uza hodi sosa fali sasan husi nasaun ne’ebé fó impréstimu?
    Karik aluga kompañia Portugues atu halo liron karun liu duke aluga ema seluk, no ita sei selu osan-funan efetivamente hamutuk 100%.

  • Osan hira mak atu selu fali? No wainhira?

  • Osan hodi selu ne’e mai husi ne’ebé los?

  • Karik Timor-Leste la bele selu fali, nia konsekuensia saida?

Maske iha valór osan-funan ne’ebé ki'ik, selu fali impréstimo sei permanentimente hatuun osan ne’ebé Timor-leste atu uza husi Fundu Petróleu. Mai ita buka hatene saida mak mosu karik ita impresta tokon rihun $3 iha tinan 2010 ho funan 2%, no selu fali iha tinan 30 nia-laran. Wainhira impréstimu ne’e selu hotu iha dekade tolu-nia laran, ita sei selu fali hamutuk tokon rihun $4.14. Ita sei hamenus Fundu Petróleu, reduz ESI ba $125 kada tinan ba rohan laek, hanesan hatudu iha gráfiku tuir-mai ne’e (liga grafiku atu haree boot liu):


 

Presaun atu ba deve

Iha loron 21-22 de Outubru 2009, Komisaun C Parlementu Nasional hala’o Workshop ida kona ba Banku Central, Governu Deve no Impresta, no Orsamentu Jeral do Estadu 2010.

Orador sira husi Banku Mundial, Autoridade Bankaria no Pagamentu, Agensia Kooperasaun Internasional Japan no sira seluk enkoraja Timór-Leste atu ba deve. Iha Banku nia liafuan hateten katak “opsaun assesmentu atu kria spasu fiskal no finansamentu defisit orsamentu, asegura kualidade gastus.” La’o Hamutuk deit mak fó hanoin ba partisipantes sira katak pergunta importante mak la’os oinsa atu deve, maibé tanba sa mak ba deve. Orador seluk argumenta katak Timór-Leste tenki deve tanba nia funan karik menus, maibé maski tusan ho funan zero mos ita tenki selu fali. La iha ema ida mak diskuti paradox husi deve nian, katak ita impresta wainhira rendimentu mina nian as hela, atu selu fila wainhira folin mina tun.

Iha loron 11 de Novembru 2009, ADB presente apelo hanesan ba Parlamentu Nasional.

La’o Hamutuk la iha asesu ba konservasaun privadu entre IFIs, nasaun seluk no Governu Timór-Leste. Maibé ita imajina katak saida mak sira hateten privadu hanesan saida mak sira hateten iha publiku, no ekonomista teknokratikamente sira dudu Timór-Leste atu tama iha deve. Kleur tiha depois peritu na’in sira ne’ebé mak hetan salariu boot fila ba sira nia rai, sidadaun jerasaun Timór-Leste nian mak sei hetan sofre husi konsekuensia husi sira nia konselho, ne’ebé serve deit ba sira nia patraun duke nasaun ida ne’e.

Planu Estratejiku Dezenvolvimentu Nasional 2010

Iha Abril 2010, Primeiru Ministru hahu’u konsultasaun publiku kona-ba Planu Estratejiku Dezenvolvimentu Nasional ba Timor-Leste ba tinan 2010-2030. Tuir ligasaun sira ne’e atu hetan:

Hanesan tresus sira iha liman los esplika, Governu propoin atu atinji Planu ida ne’e nia tarjeitu ida ne’ebe ambisiozu liu husi gasta maizumenus biliaun $1 kada tinan-tinan to 2015, maizumenus nia barak dala rua ba Fundu Petroleu nia Rendimentu Sustentavel Estimadu.

Iha tabela 2.7 (pajina 2-22), Planu antisipa defisit besik biliaun $6 iha 2020, akumula katak sei finansia husi imprestimus.

Planu projeita gastus estadu annual nian iha 2020 iha biliaun $2.2, aumenta maizumenus tokon $300 kada tinan-tinan (klik iha grafika leten). Hafoin 2020, projeksaun ne’ebe optimistiku teb-tebes ba kresimentu GDP naun-petroleu no rendimentu estadu nian ekspeta atu bele fo reseitas ne’ebe sufisiente, maske atu selu fali deve hare ba la konsidera iha planu orsamental nia laran.

Excerpts from Chapter 2 (Macroeconomic Framework) of the draft Strategic Development Plan (emphasis added)

To finance the SDP expenditure programme, the Government proposes, for expediency, additional withdrawals from the Petrol Fund, at least for the initial phase. The possibility of multilateral and bilateral loans to fund the latter part of the expenditure programme will be examined. In the long run, when the financial sector is more developed, the issuance of government debt could also be part of its fiscal armoury in future. Private finance, through the implementation of public-private partnerships, could be an option to fund some of the government capital projects. Realistically, this is likely to be a longer term development, requiring careful planning beforehand

We anticipate a rate of public-sector investments during 2011-2015 in the order of 30% of GNP, counting outlays on public health and public education mostly within the investment budget. The rest of the public sector budget would be around 20% of GNP. Total public spending would therefore be in the order of 50 percent of GNP which would amount to approximately $1 billion per year in the first years of this new decade.

Private-sector investment will add another 15% of GNP per year, perhaps 10% international investment and 5 percent domestic. With the total public investment plus the private investments, approximately 50% of GNP, and an incremental-capital-output ratio (ICOR) of around 5, the national investment rates would be consistent with GNP growth of around 12% per annum or higher.

Government revenues, including petroleum revenues, will support public spending of around $1 billion per year, with the remainder accumulating in the Petroleum Fund. The total Petroleum Fund balance will rise between 2011-2015 to around $9 billion from $5.5 billion in 2010. The government intends to benchmark the "3% rule" to current outlays and transfers, not consuming or transferring more than the sustainable consumption level equal to 3% of the sum of the Estimated Sustainable Income, (ESl) calculated as the sum of the Fund balances plus estimated NPV of future Fund revenues from petroleum. The government is currently exploring options towards funding strategic public investments including withdrawing in excess of the ESI or borrowing at concessional rates.

 

Memorandu de Intendementu no negosiasaun ho Portugal

Iha loron 21 fulan Setembru 2009, Ministros Finansas Portugal ho Timór-Leste asina akordo ba “Kreditu Tusan Mamar” ne’ebe sai hanesan base ba Timór-Leste atu deve to’o tokon €500 Euros (US$ 750 miliaun), iha instalamentu tokon €100. Detalha kona ba tusan ne’e sei hare liu iha “Akordu Planu servisu nian.” Maske akordu ida ne’ebé atu asina iha Janeiru 2010, indefinidamente adia tamba problema politika no ekonomia Portugal nian.

Maske akordu ne’e seidauk publika, informasaun balu publika ona iha website Portuguesa nian ida, enkoraja kompania Portugal nian atu aplika ba kontraktu. Aleinde ne’e, ita aprende ona katak tusan husi Portugal sei uza ba projeitu infrastrutura ne’ebé seidauk defini, no iha posibilidade atu kesi, ho 40% husi imprestimu ne’e selu ba kompania no sasan husi Portugal, 40% husi Timór-Leste, no restu ne’e laiha restriksaun.

RDTL Council of Ministers approves borrowing from Portugal

On 16 September 2009 the Council approved a Memorandum of Understanding with Portugal for attribution of a line of credit. According to the Government's press release:

"This line of credit aims to finance the investment projects in Timor-Leste, by involving the acquisition of portuguese goods and services or the participation of portuguese companies (without prejudice of the associated local component).

"The areas intended to this Line of Credit will be: construction and rehabilitation of roads and bridges; construction and rehabilitation of physical infrastructures, including Health and Education; construction and rehabilitation of infrastructures of transport and communications; and the production, transportation and distribution of energy and water."

Portugal grants €100 million credit line

Dili, 22 Sept 2009 (macauhub) ­ The Portuguese government has granted a €100 million credit line to East Timor for projects to be chosen by the East Timor government.

The initial amount of the Aid Credit Line may be increased up to €500 million according to a memorandum signed Monday in Dili

The credit line is for funding infrastructure investment projects in East Timor with the participation of Portuguese companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), in the areas of energy, transport and communications, health and education.

The two sides also signed a memorandum on double taxation, the convention of which is due to be signed by the end of January 2010, as both East Timor and Portugal consider it important to fight tax evasion and to stimulate private enterprise and create a favourable business climate.

A third memorandum also signed Monday created a technical cooperation programme which includes a visit by technicians from the Portuguese Finance Ministry in October.

The governments of Portugal and East Timor in September signed the Indicative Cooperation Program (PIC) for the next four years, estimated at €60 million.

  

Konsiderasaun ba Xina

Governu Xina, ne’ebe iha osan barak tanba ninia sasan esporta ba Eropa no Norte Amerika, hanesan enfrenta problema tanba menus rekursu naturais atu prepara ba nia populasaun ne’ebé boot no base ba industria.

Iha fulan Outubru nia klaran, Primeiru Ministru Timór-Leste, Ministra Finansas no Ministro Negosiu Estranjeiru, Sekretariu Estadu ba Rekursu Naturais no mos oficiais seluk visita Xina, diskuti kona ba imprestimu, ne’ebé Primeiru Ministru bolu “investimentu.”

Destinasaun lojika imprestimo ida husi Xina mak projeitu oleu pezadu, maibé kompania Xina sira mos bele hetan kontratu atu konstrui dalan, lihun, airportu, portu no infraestrutura seluk iha ne’e, importa trabalhadores Xinesa sira no usa Timór oan ba deit servico ne’ebe mak selu baratu. Seidauk klaru katak projetu hirak ne’e sei hasa’e ekonomia Timór-Leste nian atu bele selu fali imprestimo, no kondisaun saida deit mak Xina sei husu atu fó deve mai Timór-Leste.

Xina ba ona rai seluk iha mundu, especialmente Afrika, oferese tusan ba nasaun hirak ne’ebé riku mina no mineral. Dala barak, tusan hirak ne’e desenho ba Projeitu infrastrutura ne’ebé mak sei konstrui husi kompania Xinesa sira. No dala barak mos, kondisaun atu selu fila fali kria problema barak ba nasaun sira ne’e. Tuir mai, ezemplu balu husi tinan 2009:

Timor-Leste atu Negosia Imprestimu husi Xina ba Infrastrutura

MacauHub, Dili, Timor-Leste, 15 Outubru 2009 – Ministru Negosiu Estrangeru Timor-Leste, Zacarias da Costa hatete ona katak Timor-Leste negosia hela imprestimu husi Xina atu funda projeitu infrastrutura boot liu iha nasaun ne’e.

Ministru ne’e mos hateten ba ajensia notisias Portugal nian, Lusa, katak asuntu ne’e sei dikuti iha sexta durante enkontro entre Primeiru Ministru Xanana Gusmao ho nia parseiru husi Xina, Wen Jiabao iha cidade Xina nian, Chengdu.

Durante visita offisiais Gusmao ba Xina, Timor-Leste planu atu hasa’e kooperasaun bilateral.

Ministru da Costa mos hateten ba Lusa katak sei diskuti mos “Xina nia interese iha asesu ba Timor-Leste nia rekursu mina.”

Xina nia interese ba rekursu ina Timor-Leste nian, tuir da Costa, haforsa tan konklusaun katak konstrusaun pipeline ida husi kadoras mina “Sunrise” ba Timor-Leste no la’os Australia, komersialmente bele halo.

“Ami iha estudu fisibilidade husi kompania balu ne’ebé prova katak ida ne’e teknikamente bele,” katak da Costa.

“Ami iha tiha ona kontaktu, la’os ho Xina de’it, maibe mos ho Korea no kompania internasional ne’ebé hatudu klaramente katak, husi pontu de vista komersial, bele lori pipelina mai Timor-Leste no ida ne’e buat ne’ebe mak ami tenki hatudu ba Australiano sira, mos kompania sira iha area ne’e,” nia nota.

Tuir da Costa, “iha interese no opsaun hotu tenki konsidera, no tenki tau iha meja leten atu diskuti,” nota katak tuir tratadu Petroleu Tasi Timor conjunta, ne’ebé Australia no Timor asina, governu rua ne’e iha direitu atu involve iha desizaun final kona ba pipeline.

Ekuador, Novembru 2009

Ekuador decidi ona atu adia nia planu ba kredit biliaun USD 1 husi Xina tanba parte rua la hetan akordu kona ba kondisoens husi akordo ne’e, Ministru Politika Ekonomia Ecuador, Diego Borja hateten semana kotuk. “Sira husu kondisoens ne’ebé la bele aseita, hanesan garansia ba importa,” Borja hateten ba jurnalista sira. “Ekuador la simu imposisoens, husi Xina, husi FMI no husi se de’it. Borja hateten katak finansas Públiku Ekuador nian sei la afeita tan suspensaun negosiasaun tusan, tanba proposta orsamentu fiscal governu central nian seidauk inklui tusan ne’e. (Reuters, Dow Jones).

Afrika, Novembru 2009

“Iha ona alegasaun balu durante tempu balu katak Xina mai iha Afrika atu hadau Afirika nia rekursu no praktika neo-kolonialismu. Alegasaun ida ne’e, tuir pontu de vista hau nian, totalmente labele defende.”

            --Wen Jiabao, Primeiru Ministru Xina, tuir komitmentu ba billaun USD 10 iha tusan baratu ba Afrika ba tempu tinan tolu,
no rejeita akuzasan katak nasaun boot liu iha Asia buka de’it atu exploita rekursu husi Afrika.

Komitmentu tusan ba Afrika hadalas-rua osan biliaun $5 husi komitmentu ne’ebe halo iha tinan 2006. Wen hateten katak politika Xina nia indikador foun walu nia objectivu atu haforsa relasaun ho Afrika hodi “hare liu ba hadi’a povo nia moris,” sublinha saida mak nia bolu Beijing “la hare de’it ba an” iha nia enganhamentu iha Afrika, Washington Post reporta. Nia hateten, Xina sei konstrui projeitu enerjia foun 100 iha kontinente ne’e , no gradualmente hatun taxa ba 95% ba produtu husi nasaun Afrika sira ne’ebé mak iha relasaun diplomatiku ho Xina. FMI hato’o ona nia laran susar kona ba governu Afrika sira ne’ebé foti tusan barak liu husi kreditor Xinesa sira. Maibé Wen hateten katak Xina sei kansela tusan balu ne’ebé Xina halo ona ba nasaun kiak liu no nasaun ne’ebé mak iha tusan barak liu. Chefi de Estadu husi Afrika balu, inklui Robert Mugabe husi Zimbabwe no Omar Hassal al-Bashir husi Sudan hahi’i Xina nia supporta ne’e. Maibé nasaun seluk husi Afrika hateten, sira presija atu hanoin mesak sira nia planu dezenvolvementu atu aproveita vantajem finanseiru husi Cinesa sira. Tinan kotuk, lejislatura Uniaun Europeia nian ataka Xina tanba “opresivu” ba governu Afrika hanesan Sudan, atu satisfika Xina hahusuk ba mina no sasan seluk ne’ebe sa’e maka’as. “Xina sente laran moras tebes ho kritika ne’ebé mai husi 'Western Quarters' iha tinan hirak ikus ne’e,” Martin Davies, CEO ba Frontier Advisory, kompania peskiza and konsultante strategiku ida ne’ebé base iha Johannesburg hateten ba noticia Bloomberg. Xina tenta hela “atu iha aproximasaun mamar liu” iha nia esforsu ida ne’ebé atu heli nosaun katak Xina nia interese iha Afika “naturalmente Extractionis.” Dalan negosiu – material principal ba Xina no Xina nia produtu ba Afrika – halo Afrikanu balu hirus. “Ami moras no kole ho modelu tuan, iha ne’ebé Xina mai Afrika, exploita material prinsipal no ba fali Xina,” Vice Primeiru Ministru Zimbawe, Arthur Mutambara hateten ba Zimbabwe Times iha Setembru. “Ami agora la interese iha ne’e.” (Global Development Briefing).

Angola, Outubru 2009

Angola hetan ona akordu preliminaria ho FMI ba tusan to’o miliaun US $890. Chefi misaun FMI nian Lamin Leigh hateten katak tusan ne’e sei ajuda alevia presaun sasulik kas imediamente. Angola, produtur mina boot liu numer 19 iha mundu, enfrenta problema boot tanba mina nia folin mina tuun iha durante tinan kotuk, no krize ekonomia global. Mina agora dadaun fa’an ho US $67 kada baril, menus liu husi folin balu husi nia folin iha Julho 2008. Akordu preliminaria marka relasaun entre Angola ho FMI mak foin hadi’ak. Iha 2007, Angola hakotu negosiasaun ho FMI, no fila ba fina ba impresta biliaun dolar ne’ebe mak supporta ho mina. (BBC).

Filipina, 2007-2008

Hanesan perfil kazu korupsaun seitor privadu as liu iha 2007/2008, involve projeitu National Broadband Network (NBN). Akordu ne’e involve kontratu ho kompania telekomunikasaun ida ne’ebe base iha Xina atu estabelese rede broadband, lori liga rede entre edifisiu governu nian iha nasaun ne’e tomak. Ida ne’e hanesan parte ida de’it husi investimentu lubuk ida, maibe, investimentu sira ne’e hetan akordu iha Julhu 2006 liu husi nota intendimentu entre Departementu Komersiu no Industria Filipina nian ho Zhong Xing Telecommunications Equipment International Investment Ltd (ZTE). Iha loron 21 de Abril 2007, Departementu Transportasaun no Komunikasaun ho ZTE asina kontratu ida ho valor miliaun US $329.5, funda husi Export-Import Bank husi Xina.

Kontroversiu hahu mosu iha públiku wainhira membro Senado (hanesan Parlementu iha Timor-Leste) Carlo Padilla loke sai ba públiku iha ninia diskursu previlejiu ida iha loron 29 de Agostu 2007 katak Chefi Komisaun Eleisaun, Benjamin Abalos hetan alegasan katak nia serve hanesan “Broker”  ba kompania Cinesa, halimar golf and enkontro ho eksekutivu ZTE nian semana hirak antes asina kontratu ho NBN iha Xina. Abalos admite katak nia ba Xina no halimar golf, maibe nega katak nia serve hanesan middleman ba kompania ne’e.

Iha tempu hanesan, hasesuk malu kona ba kazu ne’e dramatiku ona. Hanesan rekonhesementu ba problema ne’ebe mosu husi projeitu ne’e, iha Setembru 2007, Prezidente kria Komisaun ida atu tau matan ba Projeitu ne’e. Maski nune’e, iha Fevreiru 2008, eis Senador Jovito Salonga falha atu lori kazu kriminal ne’e ba tribunal contra Prezidente relasiona ho Prezidente nia involvementu iha kazu ne’e. Ida ne’e akontese semana hirak de’it, depois de ema husu Prezidente Macapagal-Arroyo atu rejina, tuir testimonio husi Senadu ne’ebe “implika eis officias senior no officias seniar agora.” Iha nia responde ba reasaun públiku ne’e, Prezidente hapara “deve foun husi Xina no kreditor seluk ba projeitu infrastrutura boot’ hotu. Hanesan rezultadu, tuir lolos Filipina tenki buka ona fonte fundu alternativa seluk ba projeitu boot sanulu resin ida, maibe seidauk hetan akordu.

Kazu ida ne’e ilustra kona ba involvementu kompania husi rai li’ur, dala barak supporta husi estadu ne’ebe fo tusan no garante, bele iha risku korupsaun substansialmente. Maski iha enkoraga katak Filipina hala’o ona investigasaun kona ba alegasaun ba subornu, hanesan tristeza boot ida katak kompania hirak ne’ebé sai hanesan sentru iha desastre ida ne’e seidauk husu atu responsabiliza ba sira nia parti iha actividades hirak ne’e. Wainhira fundus hetan husi rai li’ur no kompania sira husi rai li’ur usa iha kontratu sira ne’e, ida ne’e hamenus abilidade Filipina nian atu maneja nia problema ho nakloke no trasparante. (Transparency International Global Corruption Report 2009).

Imprestimus husi Japaun

Iha Dezembru 2009, Ajensia ajudu Japaun nian JICA kompleta Estudu Ida Kona-Ba Ajudu Ba Planeamentu Fundu Dezenvolvimentu Nian iha Republika Demokratika Timor-Leste, ne’ebe identifika “asuntu xave” 19 ba Governu no doadores atu tau-matan molok implementa imprestimus eksternal nian. Iha tinan 2010 nia klaran, lista ne’e sai klo’ot ka kiik ba asaun xave sia deit:

  1. Hatidin PEDN no iha kordenasaun ne’ebe efektivu entre doadores no stratejia

  2. Kriasaun ba enkuadramentu juridiku ba divida eksterna.

  3. Kapasidade no dezenvolvimentu institusional husi ajensia implementasaun atu jere no monitor operasaun no manutensaun.

  4. Kapasidade no dezenvolvimentu institusional ba operasaun desembolso nian.

  5. Dezenvolvimentu institusional no kapasidade ba Unidade Jestaun Deve nian

  6. Dezenvolvimentu institusional atu kombate korupsaun no melhoria governança

  7. Esklarese diferensias entre mata-dalan ambiental no dekretu no klarifika obrigasaun ba asuntu lisensa ambiental nian.

  8. Reforsa sustentabilidade divida

  9. Estabelesimentu Unidade Jestaun Divida ba ezekusaun projeitu ne’ebe efisien

JICA finalize sira nia relatoriu pajina 77 kona-ba "Timor-Leste An Assessment of Macroeconomic Prospects, Future Borrowing Capacity and Debt Sustainability" iha Outubru 2010, molok Orsamentu Jeral Estadu 2011 iha, no ida ne’e subestimar planu gastus Governu nian iha futuru. Maske La’o Hamutuk seidauk hetan lisensa atu publika relatoriu ne’e iha website. Hafoin iha diskusaun no halo previzaun ba situasaun ekonomia nasaun nian ho klean, JICA fo rezumu katak Timor-Leste sei aseitavel atu hetan imprestimus, maibe suzere katak limite deit ba tokon $40-$45 kada tinan ida "dalaruma bele konsidera apropriadu husi pontus de vista husi salvaguarda sustentabilidade divida nian." Relatoriu ne’e mos identifika xave obstaklu ba Timor-Leste, inklui "Melhora kapasidade ba absorbsaun ian, reforsa jestaun ba despeza publiku nian, estabelese politika ba jestaun divida publiku nian no divida institusional sira, introduz politika atu haluan baze naun petroleu no eksportasaun nian, no rapidamente implementa reforma estrutura ne’ebe nesesariu ba seitor privadu ne’ebe dinamiku."

Posibilidade seluk tan

Iha inisiu 2010, Governu fo aviso hodi konsidera imprestimus konsesional ba projeitu investimentu previsto iha Planu Estratejiku Dezenvolvimentu Nasional, ne’ebe normalmente sei mai husi doadores bilateral no banku multilateral. Molok banku multilateral finansia projeitu bo’boot sira, Timor-Leste presiza atu reklasifika an husi nasaun ida ne’ebe sei hetan imprestimus bo’ot ba nasaun mixtura atu simu (subvensoes no imprestimus). Ba Banku Mundial no Banku Aziatiku no Dezenvolvimentu (ADB), sei husu Timor-Leste atu submete prosesu ida ne’ebe inklui estabelesimentu kreditu ida ne’ebe dignu (lolos), ne’ebe bele kontrola imprestimus ho diak los no sei bele selu fali. Doadores bilateral mos iha prosesu ne’ebe hanesan. Governu Timor-Leste husu ba reklasifikasaun iha tinan 2010 nia klaran, ne’ebe hein ati bele kompleta molok remata tinan.

Iha Setembru 2010, prosesu revizaun ba Lei Fundu Petroleu aselera ona, iha fulan Outubru nia klaran, Konseilu Ministru Diskute ona remosaun ba proibisaun atu utiliza Fundu Petroleu nudar garantia ba imprestimus, maske ida ne’e la inklui iha esbosu ne’ebe sirkula ba konsulta publiku nian. Karik ida ne’e halao, ida ne’e sei hafraku tan salvaguarda Timor-Leste nian hodi kontra Timor-Leste monu ba iha malisan rekursu.

Kreditor tradisional liu sira hanesan Banku Mundial, FMI, Banku Dezenvolvementu Asiatiku (ADB), Japaun no nasaun seluk mos atrai ho riku mina Timór nian, laiha esperiensia, no paixaun Timór-Leste nian ho projeitu boot. Maske nune’e, Banku Mundial nia Asosiasaun Dezenvolvimentu Internasional (IDA) lakohi atu fo imprestimus ba Timor-Leste molok fulan Julhu 2011 ho situasaun ne’ebe re-examinadas iha tempu ne’eba. Iha finansiador bilateral potensial balun mak preokupa kona-ba karik Timor-Leste sei iha kapasidade atu jere no selu nia divida.

Iha Abril 2010, ONG Timor-Leste nian ekspresa sira nia hanoin ba deklarasaun konjunta ba sesaun annual Reuniaun Parseiru Dezenvolvimentu Timor-Leste nian: "Ami preokupa ba planu Governu nian atu atu halo imprestimus biliaun de dolar iha tinan ida ne’e, atu selu projeitu infraestrutura fiziku sentalizadu no projeitu sira seluk. Embora, reseitas husi ita nia kampu mina-rai no gas ne’ebe fo produsaun dadaun ne’e sei maran iha 2024, maibe atu selu ita nia divida sei kontinua. Ida ne’e sei difikulta atu fo edukasaun, saude no servisu sira seluk ba ita nia kresimentu populasaun nian iha tempu ida ne’ebe servisu divida nian hatan deit prioridade kona-ba ita nia reseitas minor sira."

FMI/Banku Mundial nia Avaliasaun ba Sustentabilidade Divida

Avalisaun ba sustentabilidade divida (DSA) husi Fundu Moneteriu Internasional no Banku Mundial nudar mata-dalan importante ida kona-ba nasaun ida merese duni atu hetan kreditu ne’ebe merese. Avaliasaun ba sustentabilidade divida ida bazeia ba avaliasaun kona-ba xave divida nian ne’ebe limite ne’e sei kumpri ba tempu naruk ka lae. Xave divida ne’ebe limita ne’e iha relasaun ho rasio ba divida publiku eksternal nian ba GDP, reseitas Governu nian, eksportasaun no kustu servisu divida nian atu eksporta no reseitas Governu nian. Nivel limiares ne’e iha ligasaun ba rezultadu Politika Nasaun nian no Avaliasaun Institusional (CPIA) ne’ebe realiza husi Banku Mundial. Ida ne’e realiza anualmente no evalua atu haforsa politika nasaun nian ida no ambiente institusional liu husi kestionariu ida ne’ebe hanesan ba nasaun hotu-hotu (liga ba kestionariu 2007 nian ba CPIA). Nasaun ida ne’ebe iha pontuasaun ida ne’ebe kiik liu ho CPIA, signifika bele impresta menus tamba menus kapasidade atu selu fali divida.

Timor-Leste pasa ona avaliasaun annual ida husi Fundo Moneteriu Internasional, jeralmente iha Junho no Julho. Avaliasaun 2010 seidauk halao ate Marsu 2011, inklui Avaliasaun ba Sustentabilidade Divida ida hodi esplora karik Timor-Leste bele atende ba padraun internasional nian kona-ba kualidade kreditu nian. Embora ida ne’e hatudu ba hanesan prosesu objetivu estatistiku ida. Situasaun uniku Timor-Leste nian (rendimentu mina-rai nian boot dala hat duke GDP naun-petroleu, instituisaun estadu foun no frajil, laiha istoria imprestimus ka selu tusan nian, Fundu Petroleu ne’ebe boot), no mos nesesidade atu kalkula rezerva mina-rai ne’ebe seidauk hetan, signifika katak opiniaun sira sei influenza maka’as ba rezultadu. Karik DSA ka CPIA suporta Timor-Leste nia hanoin atu halao imprestimu, prosesu imprestimus nian sei hahu iha 2011.

FMI/Banku Mundial publika sira nia Analiza ba Sustentabilidade Divida nian ba Dezembru 2010 iha Marsu 2011. Sira konklui katak "The medium-term fiscal path for Timor-Leste is subject to uncertainties regarding spending commitments and income prospects from petroleum, which complicates the Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA). The baseline macroeconomic scenario assumes a significant scaling-up of public spending, future petroleum income only from fields with approved development plans, and a moderate borrowing envelope. Under this scenario, the external low income country DSA indicates a low risk of debt distress. The public DSA suggests that overall public sector debt dynamics are sustainable in light of a gradual approach of moderate borrowing and substantial savings in the Petroleum Fund."

Analisa FMI/Banku Mundial nian fo asumsaun katak Timor-Leste sei impresta menus husi biliaun $1, ne’ebe sei selu fali husi Fundu Petroleu. Sira fo konklusaun katak "A key challenge for Timor-Leste is to use its petroleum wealth effectively and sustainably to develop non-oil economy. Given the flexibility embedded in the PF Law and the calculations of the ESI, a major constraint on boosting growth through scaling-up public investment comes from weak policy and institutional capacity rather than from the availability of financing. Therefore, an appropriate level of public expenditure should be commensurate with the government’s capacity to plan, implement, and review investment projects, and with the ability of private sector producers to take advantage of public capital. Close cooperation with the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and other development partners would help prioritizing, sequencing, and managing expenditures. The decision of how to finance development projects—through borrowing or more withdrawals from the PF—is of second order. A gradual approach to borrowing is advisable to allow time for building up debt management capacity from scratch. Moreover, preference should be given to concessional loans rather than commercial loans to contain the risk of debt distress."

Lei Divida Públika hetan ona aprovasaun

Iha loron 3 Junu 2011, Konsellu Ministru aprova ona (mos Ingles ka Portugese) Polítika kona-ba Dívida Públika "atu hodi estabelese baze ida hodi fasilita hetan empréstimu Esternu entre Governu Timor Leste nian ho institusaun multilaterál no bilaterál sira finansimentu nian, atu suplementa nesesidade finansiamentu nian sira kona-ba Planu Dezenvolvimentu Estratéjiku (PDE)."  Politika ida-ne'e inklui:

  • justifikasaun atu hetan impréstimu

  • prinsípiu jerál sira, Governu tenke adere, inklui sustentabilidade dívida no jestaun transparente
  • jestaun kustu nian, no risku hetan impréstimu nian, inklui sustentabilidade fiskál ne’ebé metin (montante ne’ebé atu hetan iha termu no kondisaun sira)
  • estabelesimentu kuadru ida ne’ebé favorável atu hetan impréstimu (presiza implementa regra sira tuir lei no instituisaun nian atu garante jestaun dívida nian ida ne’ebé di’ak).

Iha enkontru hanesan, Konsellu Ministru aprova ona Proposta Lei kona-ba Konstituisaun, Emisaun no Jestaun ba Dívida Públika. Proposta lei ida ne'e sei ba Parlamentu atu hetan aprovasaun.

  • dívida públika ne’e la’ós atu finansia despeza korrente Estadu nian, maibé despeza ne’ebé mak kontribui ba dezevolvimentu estratéjiku país nian.

  • dívida públika tenke bazeia ba nesesidade finansiamentu ne’ebé mosu husi ezekusaun tarefa prioritária sira estadu nian, ne’ebé iha relasaun ho harii infraestrutura estratéjika sira.
  • kustu dívida públika nian labele aas liu husi retornu ekonómiku investimentu públiku nian.

Governo fo proposta lei no exposisaun motivus (Portugese ka Ingles) ba Parlamentu Nasional iha loron 28 Junhu 2011.

Iha loron 9 Agostu, ADB fo sai informasaun iha ninia website kona ba proposta atu fo impresta tokon $8.15 million ba Timor-Leste atu hadiak rede estrada nasional.

Parlamentu aprova ona Lei Divida Publika (Portugese ka Ingles) ho alterasaun kiik deit iha loron 24 Agusto, no publika ofisialmente iha loron 28 Setembru. Tempu hanesan, sira mos aprova revisaun Lei Fundu Petroleu atu fo lisensa atu uza 10% Fundu ida ne'e hanesan garantia ba imprestimos.

Iha loron 26 Agusto, La'o Hamutuk fahe hanoin balu ba konferensia EITI (PDF), ho sujestaun atu kuidado liu:

To'o ohin loron, Timor-Leste nudar nasaun ida ne’ebe laiha divida eksternal ruma. Maske iha 2002 hahu hari nasaun soberano ne’e ho kondisaun ekonomia ne’ebe la serteza, Timor-Leste insiste atu kontra presaun sira husi instituisaun sira hanesan Banku Mundial no Banku Dezenvolvimentu Azia (ADB), instituisaun sira ne’ebe durante ne’e suporta hela EITI hodi fo imprestimu atu finansia gastus estadu.

Hafoin 2006, Timor-Leste hetan osan barak husi reseitas petroleu nian tinan-tinan. Hahu kedas 2007 to ohin loron, gastu estadu nian domina ona husi reseitas petroleu. Maibe infelizmente, kondisaun ida ne’e seidauk bele ajuda Timor-Leste atu hases an husi tentasaun hodi halo imprestimu.

Iha 2009, Governu hahu halo aprosimasaun atu hetan deve atu halo finansia projeitu, no halo legislasaun balun hodi bele hadalan imprestimu, inklui Lei Orsamentu Jestaun Finanseiru iha 2009. Iha semana ne’e deit Parlamentu aprova Revizaun ba Lei Fundu Petroleu no Lei ba Divida Publiku.

Imprestu laos desizaun matenek. Esperiensia hatudu mai ita katak, nasaun barak ne’ebe halo imprestimus ikus liu failha. Ba nasaun sira ne’ebe depende ba eksportasaun petroleu, deve hanesan tentasaun ida atu uza osan husi rendimentu petroleu nian nudar garansia ba imprestimu. Situasaun ne’e hahu husi tinan 1970s no 1980s nia laran, bainhira instituisaun finanseiru internasional fo imprestimus ne’ebe boot ba nasaun produtor mina-rai sira. Indonezia, Kongo, Ekuador, Nikaragua, Filipina, Argentina no nasaun sira seluk ikus liu monu ba iha deve ne’ebe lakotu, tamba osan imprestimus ida ne’e benefisia deit elites, familia ditadura sira, maibe povo barak mak nafatin moris iha kiak nia laran.

Timor-Leste rasik iha hela risku ne’e nia laran ho hafraku ona Artigu 20 iha Lei Fundu Petroleu atu uza parte balun husi Fundu ne’e nudar garantia ba imprestimus. Ita hotu konkorda atu investe osan atu dezenvolve rekursu humanus, edukasaun, saude no agrikultura hodi nune’e bele ajuda atu lori Timor-Leste sai husi kiak, maibe ami triste teb-tebes tamba Governu hakarak atu halo imprestimus ba biliaun de dolar balun hodi uza deit ba infraestrutura fiziku nian deit.

Tamba ne’e ami bolu atensaun ba Estadu Timor-Leste atu hanoin didiak bainhira deside atu halo imprestimu. Maske nia funan ne’e kiik maibe ita tenke selu nia kapital hafoin ita nia rikusoin petroleu nian gasta hotu ona. Deve sei lori estadu atu hamenus alokasaun orsamentu ba asistensia publiku, saude, edukasaun no seluk tan.

Iha loron 8 Setembru, liu 100 organizasaun Timor-oan no internasional fo sai statementu ida atu ezizi Timor-Leste la deve. Sira konklui katak: "Republika Demokratika de Timór-Leste komesa moris iha 2002 sim deve hosi ema seluk. Ho razaun justisa, prosperioudade no futuru ne’ebé diak liu ba oan sira ohin loron no iha futuru, ita presiza liu dalan seluk atu hetan osan ba dezenvolvimentu." 

Organizasaun sira mos iha petisaun iha internet; ita boot bele le'e no asina iha ne'e.

Ami fiar katak imprestimus nudar desizaun atu deve ka la'e krusial no perigu liu ne’ebe governu bele foti, fo naha todan ba jerasaun futuru hodi selu benefisiu politika ka finaseamentu tempu badak nia laran deit, Ida ne’e tenke foti deit ho kuidadu duni, iha planeamentu ne’ebe klaru no realistiku, iha diskusaun ida ne’ebe klean no iha transparansia ne’ebe total kona-ba kondisaun, termus no oinsa atu selu fali divida.

Iha loron 28-29 Setembru, peskizador La'o Hamutuk nian Guteriano Neves hakerek artigu ida Deve no Problema sira ba Timor-Leste iha jornal Diario.

Bainhira tinan 2012 hahu, Governu Timor-Leste estabelse ona quadru legal no planu atu impresta husi instituisaun internasional no nasaun sira seluk. Hili iha ne'e atu hetan informasaun foun liu.
 

The Timor-Leste Institute for Development Monitoring and Analysis (La’o Hamutuk)
Institutu Timor-Leste ba Analiza no Monitor ba Dezenvolvimentu
Rua dos Martires da Patria, Bebora, Dili, Timor-Leste
P.O. Box 340, Dili, Timor-Leste
Tel: +670-3321040 or +670-77234330
email: 
info@laohamutuk.org    Web: http://www.laohamutuk.org    Blog: laohamutuk.blogspot.com